We are now hearing about how Covid19 positive cases are increasing. This number, by itself, is of little value. With a huge expansion in testing, the number we need to know is the percentage of testing that is positive for Covid19. That number has changed little, moving from 5% to about 5.6%. Another number that is of value is the average age of those testing positive. This number keeps falling. This is very good news since younger people are hardly affected by this disease. They have mostly asymptomatic or mild cases, for the most part. And it means we're closer to "herd immunity," and relief from this epidemic.
The other numbers that are of significance are the number of hospitalizations and the number in ICUs. A lot of inaccurate reporting is taking place in regards to these two numbers. For example, Arizona was said to have run out of hospital space. This turned out not to be true. Something similar was said about Texas; again, it was not true.
I do not believe that the major media can be trusted in their coverage of this pandemic. If you hear, or read, some alarming statistics, I advise you to look around a little bit more on the internet and verify what is being said. Oftentimes, it is simply a case of reporters not understanding the very thing they are reporting on.
What does the "Big Picture" look like? Well, it looks like this: for the last six weeks, the number of cases of Covid19 has steadily increased--it is the result of more and more testing. (For example, we all heard that Santa Paula, Fillmore and Lake Piru were "hotspots" for the disease. This wasn't the case. A very large increase in positive cases occurred because a "testing station" was setup at the old Ford dealership on Hallock Rd. There has been one death in Ventura County in the last three days. There has been only 3 deaths in the last two weeks. Positive tests are going down. And while cases steadily increased, deaths due to Covid19 have steadily decreased. Even this week, deaths are less than last week--even with the giant outcry of "spikes" in Covid cases.
The total number of daily deaths, and the graph of those deaths, is the best indicator of where we stand on this disease. And based on those numbers, we're are nearing the end of this scourge, please God. [The spread of positive cases indicates that we are farther away from "herd immunity" than I originally thought, however, this is the direction we're headed towards. We should see a drop in the number of positive cases soon, as a percentage of tests.]
The CDC estimates, compensating for the high number of asymptomatic cases, that the IFR--the Infection-Fatality Ratio, for Covid19 (technically, for the SARS-CoV2 virus) is 0.26%. The IFR for the seasonal cold is 0.13%. Italian epidemiologists and those from Eastern Pennsylvania say that the virus now appears to have mutated and become less lethal. Let's celebrate this news, rather than be sent into a panic over news that is highly reported, but almost completely misunderstood.
Fr. Pasquale
PLEASE CHECK THIS IMPORTANT WEBSITE FOR VENTURA COUNTY: https://www.vcemergency.com/